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The probability of snow tomorrow is \( \frac{3}{5} \). If it snows tomorrow, the probability that John will practice his guitar is \( \frac{7}{10} \). If it does not snow tomorrow, the probability that John will practice his guitar is \( \frac{1}{2} \). What is the probability that John will practice his guitar tomorrow? \( P(J o h n \) will practice) \( =\square \) (Type an integer or a simplified fraction.)

Ask by Griffin Bush. in the United States
Feb 26,2025

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Answer

The probability that John will practice his guitar tomorrow is \( \frac{31}{50} \).

Solution

We are given the following probabilities: 1. The probability it snows tomorrow is 3/5. 2. If it snows tomorrow, the probability John will practice his guitar is 7/10. 3. If it does not snow tomorrow, the probability John will practice his guitar is 1/2. To find the overall probability that John practices his guitar, we use the Law of Total Probability. This law states that the total probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of that event occurring under each condition weighted by the probability of each condition. Let:  P(S) = probability it snows = 3/5,  P(¬S) = probability it does not snow = 1 - 3/5 = 2/5,  P(J|S) = probability John practices given it snows = 7/10,  P(J|¬S) = probability John practices given no snow = 1/2. The overall probability that John practices his guitar is:  P(J) = P(J|S) × P(S) + P(J|¬S) × P(¬S). Now, substitute the values:  P(J) = (7/10 × 3/5) + (1/2 × 2/5). Calculate each part separately:  (7/10 × 3/5) = 21/50,  (1/2 × 2/5) = 2/10 = 1/5 = 10/50. Add them together:  P(J) = 21/50 + 10/50 = 31/50. Thus, the probability that John will practice his guitar tomorrow is 31/50.

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To find the probability that John will practice his guitar tomorrow, we can use the law of total probability. Let \( S \) be the event that it snows tomorrow, and \( P \) be the event that John practices his guitar. We know: - \( P(S) = \frac{3}{5} \) (Probability of snow) - \( P(P | S) = \frac{7}{10} \) (Probability John practices if it snows) - \( P(\neg S) = 1 - P(S) = \frac{2}{5} \) (Probability it does not snow) - \( P(P | \neg S) = \frac{1}{2} \) (Probability John practices if it does not snow) Now we can calculate the total probability that John practices his guitar: \[ P(P) = P(P | S) \cdot P(S) + P(P | \neg S) \cdot P(\neg S) \] Substituting in the values: \[ P(P) = \left(\frac{7}{10} \cdot \frac{3}{5}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{2}{5}\right) \] Calculating each term: 1. \( \frac{7}{10} \cdot \frac{3}{5} = \frac{21}{50} \) 2. \( \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{2}{5} = \frac{1}{5} = \frac{10}{50} \) Now, adding these probabilities together: \[ P(P) = \frac{21}{50} + \frac{10}{50} = \frac{31}{50} \] Thus, the probability that John will practice his guitar tomorrow is \( \frac{31}{50} \). So, \( P(J o h n \) will practice) \( = \frac{31}{50} \)

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