Question
\( \uparrow 4.3 .3 \) Quiz: Simulation and Modeling with Data Question 4 of 10 Which number of simulation trials would be likely to produce results that are closest to the actual probability? A. 15 B. 25 C. 30 D. 20
Ask by Mitchell Stewart. in the United States
Jan 30,2025
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Answer
30 simulation trials are most likely to give results closest to the actual probability.
Solution
To determine which number of simulation trials is most likely to produce results closest to the actual probability, we can consider the **Law of Large Numbers**. This statistical principle states that as the number of trials increases, the experimental probability tends to get closer to the theoretical (actual) probability.
Given the options:
- **A. 15**
- **B. 25**
- **C. 30**
- **D. 20**
**Option C. 30** represents the highest number of trials among the choices. Therefore, conducting **30 simulation trials** is most likely to yield results that are closest to the actual probability.
**Answer:**
C. 30
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In general, the more simulation trials you conduct, the closer your results will be to the actual probability due to the Law of Large Numbers. Conducting more trials allows random variations to balance out, leading to a more accurate estimate. So, in this case, the choice that is likely to yield the most accurate results would be C. 30. It's crucial to remember that smaller sample sizes can lead to higher variability and potentially misleading outcomes. So, while it might be tempting to stop at fewer trials, striving for more—like 30—helps ensure that your data representation is robust and reliable. Happy simulating!
