Question
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A bag contains 4 gold marbles, 8 silver marbles, and 26 black marbles. Someone offers to play this game: You randomly select one marble from the bag. If it is gold, you win \( \$ 3 \). If it is silver, you win \( \$ 2 \). If it is black, you lose \( \$ 1 \). What is your expected value if you play this game? Round your answer to two decimal places.

Ask by Chadwick Colon. in the United States
Feb 18,2025

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Answer

The expected value is approximately \$0.05.

Solution

Total marbles = 4 (gold) + 8 (silver) + 26 (black) = 38. Probabilities: • Gold: 4/38 • Silver: 8/38 • Black: 26/38 Expected winnings: = (Probability of gold × $3) + (Probability of silver × $2) + (Probability of black × -$1) = (4/38 × 3) + (8/38 × 2) + (26/38 × -1) = (12 + 16 - 26) / 38 = 2/38 = 1/19 ≈ 0.053 Rounded to two decimal places, the expected value is approximately $0.05.

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To calculate the expected value, we first need to identify the total number of marbles in the bag, which is \(4 + 8 + 26 = 38\) marbles. Next, we calculate the probabilities for each type of marble: - Probability of drawing a gold marble: \(\frac{4}{38} = \frac{2}{19}\) - Probability of drawing a silver marble: \(\frac{8}{38} = \frac{4}{19}\) - Probability of drawing a black marble: \(\frac{26}{38} = \frac{13}{19}\) Now we calculate the expected value (EV) by multiplying each outcome with its probability: - EV from gold marbles: \(\frac{2}{19} \times 3 = \frac{6}{19}\) - EV from silver marbles: \(\frac{4}{19} \times 2 = \frac{8}{19}\) - EV from black marbles: \(\frac{13}{19} \times (-1) = -\frac{13}{19}\) Now we sum these expected values: \[ EV = \frac{6}{19} + \frac{8}{19} - \frac{13}{19} = \frac{1}{19} \] To convert this into a decimal: \[ \frac{1}{19} \approx 0.0526 \] Rounding to two decimal places gives us: \[ \text{Expected Value} \approx 0.05 \] So, the expected value if you play this game is approximately \$0.05.

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