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A countrys population and the growth rate in 2011 are given below. Assume that the growth rate remains the same from year to year. Use this information and an exponential model to estimate the countrys population in the specified year. population \( =146 \) million; growth rate \( =-0.328 \) percent; year, 2024 The size of the population in the 2024 will be about \( \square \) millifn. (Round to the nearest hundredth as needed.)

Ask by Daniel Nunez. in the United States
Mar 20,2025

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Answer

The country's population in 2024 will be approximately 139.73 million.

Solution

Let \( P_0 = 146 \) million be the 2011 population and the annual growth rate is \(-0.328\%\). First, convert the percentage to a decimal growth rate: \[ r = -0.00328 \] Using the exponential growth model: \[ P(t) = P_0 e^{rt} \] where \( t \) is the number of years after 2011. For the year 2024: \[ t = 2024 - 2011 = 13 \text{ years} \] Substitute the values into the model: \[ P(13) = 146 \times e^{-0.00328 \times 13} \] Compute the exponent: \[ -0.00328 \times 13 = -0.04264 \] Then the model becomes: \[ P(13) = 146 \times e^{-0.04264} \] Calculate \( e^{-0.04264} \): \[ e^{-0.04264} \approx 0.95821 \] Now, substitute this value back into the formula: \[ P(13) \approx 146 \times 0.95821 \approx 139.73 \] Thus, the country's population in 2024 is approximately \( \boxed{139.73} \) million.

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The Deep Dive

To estimate the country's population in 2024, we can use the formula for exponential growth/decay: \[ P(t) = P_0 \times (1 + r)^t \] Where: - \( P(t) \) is the population at time \( t \), - \( P_0 = 146 \) million is the initial population, - \( r = -0.00328 \) (the growth rate expressed as a decimal), - \( t = 2024 - 2011 = 13 \) years. Plugging in the numbers: \[ P(2024) = 146 \times (1 - 0.00328)^{13} \] \[ P(2024) = 146 \times (0.99672)^{13} \] \[ P(2024) = 146 \times 0.95864 \] \[ P(2024) \approx 139.03 \] million. So, the estimated population in 2024 will be about 139.03 million. Back in 2011, the world was witnessing various significant events, including the Arab Spring, which began that year. This series of protests and uprisings across the Arab world was a pivotal moment for many countries, impacting everything from governance to demographics as populations mobilized for change. For those looking to understand demographic modeling further, the concept of "carrying capacity" is intriguing! It explores how populations interact with their environment and the resources available. Authors like Jared Diamond in "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" delve into these themes, providing great insights into population dynamics and sustainability issues.

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