Ian and Sophia flip a fair coin ten times and record their results; they find that the coin landed on heads eight times. lan says, "This means the coin will land on heads \( 80 \% \) of the time!" Sophia says, "I don't think so; if we flip it many more times, our results should be closer to it landing on heads about \( 50 \% \) of the time." Who is right? How do you know? Choose the correct answer below. A. Ian is right, because 8 out of 10 is \( 80 \% \). B. lan is right, because a coin isn't neccessarily heads \( 50 \% \) of the time, and the sample probability is usually near the population probability. C. Sophia is right, because of the Law of Large Numbers (Bernoulli's Theorem). D. Sophia is right, because the coin should land on heads exactly \( 50 \% \) of the time.
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C. Sophia is right, because of the Law of Large Numbers (Bernoulli's Theorem). The Law of Large Numbers tells us that as we conduct more trials (in this case, more coin flips), the experimental probability (the actual results of the flips) will get closer to the theoretical probability of the event (which for a fair coin is \( 50\% \) for heads and \( 50\% \) for tails). Ian's observation of \( 80\% \) based on just 10 flips is likely a result of random chance, and over a larger number of flips, the average will more closely approximate \( 50\% \). This scenario helps illuminate how probabilities work in practice! When flipping a fair coin many times, we expect deviations from the expected \( 50\% \) for heads in the short term, but consistency over time will shine through. So, keep flipping!