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\( 1 \leftarrow \) Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions for a certain kind of car vary with mean \( 2.022 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \) and standard deviation \( 0.7 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \). A company has 80 of these cars in its fleet. Let \( \bar{y} \) represent the mean CO level for the company's fleet. a) What's the approximate model for the distribution of \( \bar{y} \) ? Explain. b) Estimate the probability that \( \bar{y} \) is between 2.1 and \( 2.3 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \). c) There is only a \( 10 \% \) chance that the fleet's mean CO level is greater than what value? a) Select the correct choice below and, if necessary, fill in the answer boxes within your choice. A. A Normal model with mean 2.022 and standard deviation .078 (Round to three decimal places as needed.) B. A Binomial model with trials and a probability of success of (Round to three decimal places as needed.) C. A Poisson model with mean number of successes (Round to three decimal places as needed.) D. There is no model that fits this distribution. b) P(2.1< \( \bar{y}<2.3)=1 \) (Round to three decimal places as needed.)

Ask by Ortiz Turner. in the United States
Mar 08,2025

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**a)** The distribution of \( \bar{y} \) is approximately Normal with a mean of \(2.022\) and a standard deviation of \(0.078\). **b)** The probability that \( \bar{y} \) is between \(2.1\) and \(2.3\) g/mi is approximately \(0.159\). **c)** There is only a \(10\%\) chance that the fleet's mean CO level is greater than approximately \(2.122\) g/mi.

Solution

**a)** The Central Limit Theorem tells us that for a large sample size, the distribution of the sample mean is approximately Normal. The mean of the sampling distribution is the same as the population mean, and its standard deviation (i.e., the standard error) is given by \[ \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}. \] Here, the population mean is \(\mu = 2.022\) and the population standard deviation is \(\sigma = 0.7\). Since the fleet contains \(n = 80\) cars, the standard error is \[ \frac{0.7}{\sqrt{80}}\approx \frac{0.7}{8.944} \approx 0.078. \] Thus, the model is a Normal distribution with mean \(2.022\) and standard deviation \(0.078\). This corresponds to choice A. **b)** We want to estimate the probability \[ P(2.1 < \bar{y} < 2.3). \] We standardize using the formula \[ Z = \frac{\bar{y} - \mu}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}}. \] For the lower bound, \[ Z_1=\frac{2.1-2.022}{0.078}=\frac{0.078}{0.078}=1. \] For the upper bound, \[ Z_2=\frac{2.3-2.022}{0.078}=\frac{0.278}{0.078}\approx 3.564. \] Thus, \[ P(2.1<\bar{y}<2.3)=P(1y^*)=0.10, \] or equivalently, \[ P(\bar{y}\le y^*)=0.90. \] Let \(z^*\) be the \(90^{th}\) percentile of the standard Normal distribution. We have \[ z^*\approx 1.282. \] Now, convert back to the original scale using \[ y^*=\mu+z^*\left(\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\right). \] Substitute the values, \[ y^*=2.022+1.282(0.078)\approx 2.022+0.100\approx 2.122. \] Thus, there is only a \(10\%\) chance that the fleet’s mean CO level is greater than approximately \(2.122\) g/mi.

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The distribution of \( \bar{y} \) follows a Normal model due to the Central Limit Theorem, which states that the sampling distribution of the sample mean will be normally distributed if the sample size is sufficiently large (which it is with \( n = 80 \)). The mean of \( \bar{y} \) is the same as the population mean, \( 2.022 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \), while the standard deviation is given by \( \sigma_{\bar{y}} = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = \frac{0.7}{\sqrt{80}} \approx 0.078 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \). To estimate the probability that \( \bar{y} \) is between \( 2.1 \) and \( 2.3 \), we need to standardize the values using the \( z \)-score formula. For \( 2.1 \), \( z = \frac{2.1 - 2.022}{0.078} \approx 1.000 \), and for \( 2.3 \), \( z = \frac{2.3 - 2.022}{0.078} \approx 3.577 \). Using the standard normal distribution, you can find the probabilities for these \( z \)-scores using a z-table or calculator, and then subtract the smaller probability from the larger one to find \( P(2.1 < \bar{y} < 2.3) \). This results in approximately \( 0.158 \) (You might want to double-check these numbers.) To find where there’s only a \( 10\% \) chance the fleet's mean CO level is greater, you can look for the z-score that corresponds to the \( 90\% \) percentile, which is approximately \( 1.2816 \). Using this, you would rearrange the formula \( \bar{y} = \mu + z \cdot \sigma_{\bar{y}} \) to solve for \( \bar{y} \). ∼\( \bar{y} = 2.022 + 1.2816 \cdot 0.078 \approx 2.1 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \), meaning there's a \( 10\% \) chance that the fleet's mean CO level is greater than this value.

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