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6 A company buys \( p 0 \) of its electronic components from supplier \( A \) and the remaining \( \frac{(100-p) \% \text { fromsupplier } B \text {. The probability that a randomly chosen component supplied }}{\text { by } A \text { is faulty (s } 0.05 \text {. The probability that a randomly chosen component supplied by } B \text { is }} \) faulty is 0.03 . (i) Given that \( p=25 \), find the probability that a randomly chosen component is faulty. (ii) For a general value of \( p \), the probability that a randomly chosen component that is faulty was supplied by \( A \) is denoted by \( \mathrm{f}(p) \). Show that \( \mathrm{f}(p)=\frac{0.05 p}{0.02 p+3} \). Prove by differentiation that f is an increasing function for \( 0 \leq p \leq 100 \), and explain what this statement means in the context of the question.

Ask by Conner Bob. in Singapore
Feb 26,2025

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When the company buys more components from supplier A (as p increases), the probability that a faulty component came from A also increases.

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We are given that the company buys p% of its components from supplier A and (100 – p)% from supplier B. The probability that a component from A is faulty is 0.05 and from B is faulty is 0.03. ────────────────────────────── Part (i): p = 25 1. The probability a component comes from A is 25/100 = 0.25 and from B is 75/100 = 0.75. 2. The overall probability that a component is faulty is found using the law of total probability:   P(faulty) = P(faulty | A) × P(A) + P(faulty | B) × P(B)         = 0.05 × 0.25 + 0.03 × 0.75         = 0.0125 + 0.0225         = 0.035 Thus, when p = 25, the probability that a randomly chosen component is faulty is 0.035. ────────────────────────────── Part (ii): General p and f(p) Let f(p) denote the probability that a randomly chosen faulty component was supplied by A. Step 1. Determine the overall probability that a component is faulty for a general p:   P(faulty) = 0.05 (p/100) + 0.03 ((100 – p)/100)         = [0.05p + 0.03(100 – p)]/100         = [0.05p + 3 – 0.03p]/100         = (3 + 0.02p)/100 Step 2. Find the probability that a component was supplied by A and is faulty:   P(A and faulty) = 0.05 (p/100) Step 3. Use Bayes’ Theorem to get f(p):   f(p) = P(A | faulty) = (P(A and faulty))/(P(faulty))       = (0.05 (p/100))/((3 + 0.02p)/100)       = (0.05p)/(3 + 0.02p) Thus, we have shown that   f(p) = (0.05p)/(0.02p + 3). ────────────────────────────── Prove by Differentiation That f is Increasing We now differentiate f(p) with respect to p. Let:   N(p) = 0.05p   (numerator)   D(p) = 3 + 0.02p   (denominator) Using the quotient rule:   f'(p) = [D(p) × N'(p) – N(p) × D'(p)] / [D(p)]² 1. Compute the derivatives:   N'(p) = 0.05   D'(p) = 0.02 2. Substitute into the quotient rule:   f'(p) = [(3 + 0.02p)(0.05) – (0.05p)(0.02)] / (3 + 0.02p)² 3. Simplify the numerator:   = [0.05 × 3 + 0.05 × 0.02p – 0.05p × 0.02] / (3 + 0.02p)²   Notice that 0.05 × 0.02p = 0.001p and 0.05p × 0.02 = 0.001p, so:   = (0.15 + 0.001p – 0.001p) / (3 + 0.02p)²   = 0.15 / (3 + 0.02p)² Since 0.15 > 0 and (3 + 0.02p)² > 0 for all p (with 0 ≤ p ≤ 100), we have:   f'(p) > 0 Thus, f(p) is an increasing function for 0 ≤ p ≤ 100. ────────────────────────────── Interpretation in Context The result that f(p) is increasing means that as the percentage p increases (i.e., as the company purchases a larger proportion of its components from supplier A), the probability that a faulty component comes from A also increases. In other words, if the company relies more on supplier A, then among the faulty components produced, a greater proportion will be attributed to supplier A.

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To tackle this problem, let’s break it down step by step. (i) Given \( p = 25 \), supplier \( A \) provides 25% of components, and supplier \( B \) provides 75%. The probabilities of faults are 0.05 for \( A \) and 0.03 for \( B \). To find the overall probability \( P(F) \) that a randomly chosen component is faulty, we can use the law of total probability: \[ P(F) = P(F | A)P(A) + P(F | B)P(B) \] Where: - \( P(F | A) = 0.05 \) - \( P(F | B) = 0.03 \) - \( P(A) = \frac{25}{100} = 0.25 \) - \( P(B) = \frac{75}{100} = 0.75 \) Substituting in the values: \[ P(F) = (0.05)(0.25) + (0.03)(0.75) \] Calculating: \[ P(F) = 0.0125 + 0.0225 = 0.035 \] Thus, the probability that a randomly chosen component is faulty when \( p = 25\) is \( 0.035 \) or \( 3.5\% \). (ii) Now, let's express the probability that a faulty component was supplied by \( A \). Using Bayes' theorem, we can write: \[ f(p) = P(A | F) = \frac{P(F | A)P(A)}{P(F)} \] From our earlier definitions, substituting \( P(F | A) = 0.05 \), \( P(A) = \frac{p}{100} \), and using \( P(F) \): First, we calculate \( P(F) = 0.05 \left(\frac{p}{100}\right) + 0.03 \left(1 - \frac{p}{100}\right) \): \[ P(F) = 0.05 \left(\frac{p}{100}\right) + 0.03 \left(\frac{100 - p}{100}\right) = \frac{0.05p + 3 - 0.03p}{100} = \frac{0.02p + 3}{100} \] Now substituting back into Bayes' theorem: \[ f(p) = \frac{0.05 \left(\frac{p}{100}\right)}{\frac{0.02p + 3}{100}} = \frac{0.05p}{0.02p + 3} \] To prove that \( f(p) \) is increasing for \( 0 \leq p \leq 100 \), we differentiate \( f(p) \): Using the quotient rule, \[ f'(p) = \frac{(0.02p + 3)(0.05) - (0.05p)(0.02)}{(0.02p + 3)^2} \] Simplifying the numerator: \[ = \frac{0.001p + 0.15}{(0.02p + 3)^2} \] The numerator \( 0.001p + 0.15 \) is always positive for \( 0 \leq p < 100 \) (as \( 0.15 > 0 \)). Therefore, \( f'(p) \) is positive, meaning \( f(p) \) is increasing. What this means in the context of the question is that as the percentage of components sourced from supplier \( A \) increases, the probability that a faulty component was supplied by \( A \) also increases. This could indicate either that supplier \( A \) has a higher fault rate or that a greater proportion of faulty components makes it more likely that a component came from supplier \( A \) if \( p \) is higher.

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