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If a gambling game is played with expected value \( \$ 0.40 \), then there is a \( 40 \% \) chance of winning. true false

Ask by Little Burton. in the United States
Feb 26,2025

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The statement is false. An expected value of $0.40 does not necessarily mean there's a 40% chance of winning. The actual probability of winning depends on the specific outcomes and their probabilities in the game.

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The statement is false. The expected value of a game is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its probability and then summing those products. For example, even if a game has an expected value of $0.40 per play, that does not mean there is necessarily a 40% chance of “winning” in the sense of receiving a positive payout. As an illustration, consider a game with only two outcomes: • Outcome 1: Win $1.00 • Outcome 2: Win $0.00 If the probability of winning $1.00 is p, the expected value EV is calculated as:  EV = p × $1.00 + (1 − p) × $0.00 = p To have an expected value of $0.40, p would indeed be 40%. However, many gambling games have multiple outcomes or payoffs that differ from this simple binary example. For instance, a game might give:  • A win of $4.00 with a 10% chance, and  • A win of $0.00 with a 90% chance, which also results in an expected value of $0.40 (0.10 × $4.00 = $0.40). Thus, the expected value of $0.40 can be achieved with a win probability of 10% (if the win is $4), or any number of other combinations. Therefore, you cannot automatically conclude that an expected value of $0.40 implies a 40% chance of winning.

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The Deep Dive

False! The expected value (EV) of a game considers both the probabilities of winning and losing, as well as the amounts won or lost. An EV of \$0.40 means that, on average, you can expect to win 40 cents per game played; however, it doesn't directly translate to a 40% chance of winning. The probabilities may vary based on the specific payouts and costs associated with the game. Digging deeper into gambling games, casinos often design their games to have a house edge, ensuring they're profitable over time. Understanding expected value can be a game-changer for players, as it helps to identify which games are likely to be more favorable. So, remember to check your odds and payouts before placing your bets—it’s all about knowing when to roll the dice!

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