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If the profit on a raffle ticket has an expected value of \( -\$ 5 \), then the most likely outcome of purchasing a raffle ticket is a net loss of \( \$ 5 \). false true

Ask by Schofield Rodriquez. in the United States
Feb 26,2025

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The statement is false. The expected value of –$5 means that on average, purchasing a raffle ticket results in a loss of $5. However, the most likely outcome isn't necessarily a net loss of exactly $5. It's possible that most tickets result in smaller losses or even a profit, while a few tickets have larger losses that bring down the average.

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False Explanation: The expected value is an average result calculated over many repetitions of the experiment. It is found by weighting each possible outcome by its probability and summing these products. However, the expected value does not necessarily represent the most likely outcome (the mode) of a single trial. In a raffle, even if the average profit per ticket is –$5, the majority of tickets might yield a smaller loss (or no loss at all) while a few tickets might have a very large loss, pulling the average down. Therefore, the most likely outcome is not necessarily a net loss of exactly $5.

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While the expected value of a raffle ticket is indeed \( -\$ 5 \), which indicates an average loss over many tickets purchased, it doesn't guarantee that the most likely outcome is a net loss of exactly \( \$ 5 \). Raffle tickets usually have a range of outcomes, including a small number of winners who may gain. Therefore, it’s possible for someone to break even or win a larger sum on occasion, even though the average expectation points to a loss. When considering whether to buy a raffle ticket, think about the odds and potential prizes versus the cost and average loss. Many people purchase tickets for the thrill of hoping to win, rather than focusing solely on the expected loss. It's essential to weigh the entertainment value against the financial expectation.

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