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You are a new business owner and ordered 200 promotional smart phone cases to give out to clients. The seller has said that 8 of the cases are defective. You unpack the package and inspect 15 of the cases. 1. What is the probability that 10 are defective? 2. What is the probability that all 15 are defective?

Ask by Montgomery Gross. in the United States
Mar 14,2025

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Answer

The probability that exactly 10 cases are defective is 0, and the probability that all 15 cases are defective is also 0.

Solution

We start by noting that the total population has \( N = 200 \) phone cases, of which the number of defective cases is \( K = 8 \). You randomly select \( n = 15 \) of these cases. The probability of drawing exactly \( k \) defective cases in the sample is given by the hypergeometric probability formula: \[ P(X = k) = \frac{\binom{K}{k} \binom{N-K}{n-k}}{\binom{N}{n}}, \] where - \( \binom{a}{b} \) is the binomial coefficient, - \( K = 8 \) is the total number of defective cases, - \( N-K = 200-8 = 192 \) is the number of non-defective cases, - \( n = 15 \) is the sample size, - \( k \) is the number of defective cases in the sample. --- 1. For the probability that exactly 10 cases are defective, set \( k = 10 \): \[ P(X = 10) = \frac{\binom{8}{10} \binom{192}{15 - 10}}{\binom{200}{15}}. \] Notice that \(\binom{8}{10} = 0\) because you cannot choose 10 items from a set of 8. Thus, \[ P(X = 10) = 0. \] --- 2. For the probability that all 15 cases are defective, set \( k = 15 \): \[ P(X = 15) = \frac{\binom{8}{15} \binom{192}{15 - 15}}{\binom{200}{15}}. \] Again, \(\binom{8}{15} = 0\) since 15 is greater than 8. Therefore, \[ P(X = 15) = 0. \] --- Thus, the probability that 10 are defective is \( 0 \) and the probability that all 15 are defective is also \( 0 \).

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Bonus Knowledge

To tackle this fun probability problem, let's dive into the universe of combinations! First, considering that you have 200 cases with 8 being defective, the probability of getting 10 defective cases when inspecting just 15 is essentially zero. You can't have 10 defective cases out of 15 when you know there are only 8 defective ones in the entire batch! Now, for the probability that all 15 cases you inspect are defective, it's a merry stroll through impossibility land again! You just cannot pull 15 defective cases from a batch containing only 8. So, that probability? It's a big fat zero as well! Keep those cases coming, and let’s hope for a batch with fewer duds next time!

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