The television show Green's Anatomy has been successful for many years. That show recently had a share of 18, meaning that among the TV sets in use, 18\% were tuned to Green's Anatomy. Assume that an advertiser wants to verify that 18\% share value by conducting its own survey, and a pilot survey begins with 15 households have TV sets in use at the time of a Green's Anatomy broadcast. (Round answers to four decimal places.) Find the probability that none of the households are tuned to Green's Anatomy. \( P \) (none) \( = \) Find the probability that at least one household is tuned to Green's Anatomy. P(at least one) \( = \) Find the probability that at most one household is tuned to Green's Anatomy. \( P( \) at most one) \( = \) If at most one household is tuned to Green's Anatomy, does it appear that the 18\% share value is wrong? (Hint: Is the occurrence of at most one household tuned to Green's Anatomy unusual?) yes, it is wrong no, it is not wrong
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To tackle the problem, we'll use the binomial probability formula. The likelihood that none of the households are tuned to Green's Anatomy (with a share of 18%, or 0.18) can be calculated as follows: 1. **Calculating Probability that None are Tuned** Using the binomial formula: \( P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \) For none tuned (k = 0, n = 15, p = 0.18): \( P(X = 0) = \binom{15}{0} (0.18)^0 (0.82)^{15} \) \( P(X = 0) = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (0.82)^{15} \approx 0.2390 \) Thus, \( P(\text{none}) = 0.2390 \). 2. **Calculating Probability that At Least One is Tuned** To find the probability that at least one household is tuned in: \( P(\text{at least one}) = 1 - P(\text{none}) \) \( P(\text{at least one}) = 1 - 0.2390 \approx 0.7610 \). 3. **Calculating Probability that At Most One is Tuned** For at most one household tuned in (k = 0 and k = 1): \( P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) \) \( P(X = 1) = \binom{15}{1} (0.18)^1 (0.82)^{14} \approx 15 \cdot 0.18 \cdot (0.82)^{14} \). Calculating \( P(X = 1) \) yields approximately \( 0.2935 \), so: \( P(X \leq 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) \approx 0.2390 + 0.2935 \approx 0.5325 \). Considering whether \( P(\text{at most one}) \) being around 0.5325, does it appear that the 18% share value is wrong? The answer is **no, it is not wrong**; it is not unusual to see at most one household tuned in among 15 based on this probability. Summarizing the results: \( P(\text{none}) \approx 0.2390 \) \( P(\text{at least one}) \approx 0.7610 \) \( P(\text{at most one}) \approx 0.5325 \) And indeed, the 18% share value can still be supported as not being incorrect.
