Based on past experience, a bank believes that \( 11 \% \) of the people who receive loans will not make payments on time. The bank has recently approved 500 loans, which are a random representative sample. Complete parts a through c. \( \mu(\hat{p})=.11 \) SD \( (\hat{p})=.014 \) (Round to three decimal places as needed.) b) What assumptions underlie your model? Are the conditions met? A. With reasonable assumptions about the sample, all the conditions are met. B. The randomization condition is not met. C. The success/failure condition is not met. D. The \( 10 \% \) and success/failure conditions are not met. E. The \( 10 \% \) condition is not met. F. The randomization and success/failure conditions are not met. G. The randomization and \( 10 \% \) conditions are not met. H. Without unreasonable assumptions, none of the conditions are met. c) What is the probability that over \( 13 \% \) of these clients will not make timely payments? P( \( \hat{p}>0.13)=\square \) (Round to three decimal places as needed.)
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In order to answer part b, we need to determine the assumptions that support the model. For a proportion, the primary conditions are random sampling, the success/failure condition (at least 10 successes and 10 failures), and the 10% condition (the sample should be less than 10% of the population). Since the bank is working with a sample of 500 loans and expects \( 11\% \) to potentially default, there should be at least 10 successes (people not paying on time) and 10 failures. So, the correct answer here is A. With reasonable assumptions about the sample, all the conditions are met. For part c, we are interested in calculating the probability that over \( 13\% \) of the clients will not make timely payments. We can use the normal approximation for this simple probability involving proportions. The z-score can be calculated as follows: \[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - \mu(\hat{p})}{SD(\hat{p})} = \frac{0.13 - 0.11}{0.014} \approx 1.429 \] Now, using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, we find the probability associated with \( P(Z > 1.429) \). After calculating, we find that this corresponds to approximately \( P(\hat{p} > 0.13) \approx 0.076 \). Thus, rounding to three decimal places, we have \( P(\hat{p}>0.13) \approx 0.076 \).
