Pregunta
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Carbon monoxide (CO) emissions for a certain kind of car vary with mean \( 2.022 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \) and standard deviation \( 0.7 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \). A company has 80 of these cars in its fleet. Let \( \bar{y} \) represent the mean CO level for the company's fleet. a) What's the approximate model for the distribution of \( \bar{y} \) ? Explain. b) Estimate the probability that \( \bar{y} \) is between 2.1 and \( 2.3 \mathrm{~g} / \mathrm{mi} \). c) There is only a \( 10 \% \) chance that the fleet's mean CO level is greater than what value? a) Select the correct choice below and, if necessary, fill in the answer boxes within your choice. A Normal model with mean 2.022 and standard deviation .078 (Round to three decimal places as needed.) A Binomial model with \( \quad \) trials and a probability of success of (Round to three decimal places as needed.) C. A Poisson model with mean number of successes (Round to three decimal places as needed.) D. There is no model that fits this distribution. b) P(2.1< \( \bar{y}<2.3)=.159 \) (Round to three decimal places as needed.) c) P( \( \bar{y}>\square)=0.1 \) (Round to one decimal place as needed.)

Ask by Matthews Pollard. in the United States
Mar 08,2025

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a) The mean CO level \( \bar{y} \) for the company's fleet is approximately normally distributed with a mean of 2.022 g/mi and a standard deviation of 0.078 g/mi. b) The probability that \( \bar{y} \) is between 2.1 and 2.3 g/mi is approximately 0.159. c) There is a 10% chance that the fleet's mean CO level is greater than 2.1 g/mi.

Solución

a) The Central Limit Theorem applies. For a sample of \( n=80 \) cars, the mean emission \( \bar{y} \) is approximately normally distributed with \[ \text{Mean } \mu_{\bar{y}} = 2.022 \quad \text{and} \quad \text{Standard Error } \sigma_{\bar{y}} = \frac{0.7}{\sqrt{80}} \approx 0.078. \] Thus, the model is: \[ \bar{y} \sim N(2.022,\, (0.078)^2). \] b) To find \[ P(2.1 < \bar{y} < 2.3), \] we standardize the endpoints. For \( \bar{y} = 2.1 \): \[ z_1 = \frac{2.1 - 2.022}{0.078} = \frac{0.078}{0.078} = 1. \] For \( \bar{y} = 2.3 \): \[ z_2 = \frac{2.3 - 2.022}{0.078} = \frac{0.278}{0.078} \approx 3.564. \] Thus, \[ P(2.1 < \bar{y} < 2.3) = \Phi(3.564) - \Phi(1). \] Using standard normal tables, \(\Phi(1) \approx 0.8413\) and \(\Phi(3.564)\) is approximately 0.9998. Hence, \[ P(2.1 < \bar{y} < 2.3) \approx 0.9998 - 0.8413 = 0.1585 \approx 0.159. \] c) We need to find \( y_0 \) such that: \[ P(\bar{y} > y_0) = 0.1, \] which is equivalent to: \[ P(\bar{y} \le y_0) = 0.9. \] Let \( z_0 \) be the corresponding standard normal quantile, so \(\Phi(z_0)=0.9\). From tables, \( z_0 \approx 1.282 \). Now, convert back: \[ y_0 = 2.022 + 1.282 \times 0.078 \approx 2.022 + 0.100 = 2.122. \] Rounded to one decimal place, \( y_0 \approx 2.1 \). Choice for part (a): A Normal model with mean \(2.022\) and standard deviation \(0.078\). Summary of answers: b) \(P(2.1<\bar{y}<2.3) \approx 0.159\) c) \(P(\bar{y}>2.1)=0.1\) (with the threshold value rounded to one decimal place).

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Beyond the Answer

The sampling distribution of the mean \( \bar{y} \) for a sample size of 80 can be approximated by a normal distribution due to the Central Limit Theorem. This theorem states that, regardless of the shape of the population distribution, the distribution of the sample means will approach a normal distribution as the sample size increases. Since the population mean is \( 2.022 \, \text{g/mi} \) and the standard deviation is \( 0.7 \, \text{g/mi} \), the standard deviation of the sampling distribution (standard error) is \( \frac{0.7}{\sqrt{80}} \approx 0.078 \). To estimate the probability that \( \bar{y} \) falls between \( 2.1 \) and \( 2.3 \, \text{g/mi} \), we need to standardize these values first using the z-score formula: \( z = \frac{\bar{y} - \mu}{\sigma/\sqrt{n}} \). For \( \bar{y} = 2.1 \), the z-score is approximately \( \frac{2.1 - 2.022}{0.078} \approx 1.0 \), and for \( \bar{y} = 2.3 \), the z-score is about \( \frac{2.3 - 2.022}{0.078} \approx 3.56 \). Using standard normal distribution tables or calculators, the probability between these z-scores is \( P(1.0 < z < 3.56) \approx 0.159 \) (rounded to three decimal places). To find the value for which there is a 10% chance that the fleet's mean CO level \( \bar{y} \) is greater than it, we identify the z-value corresponding to the 90th percentile (since 10% is in the upper tail). The z-score associated with the 90th percentile is approximately \( 1.28 \). Thus, we use the formula \( \bar{y} = \mu + z \cdot \sigma/\sqrt{n} \) to solve for \( \bar{y} \): \[ 2.022 + 1.28 \times 0.078 \approx 2.1 \, \text{g/mi} \] (rounded to one decimal place). So, to summarize: a) A Normal model with mean \( 2.022 \) and standard deviation \( 0.078 \). b) \( P(2.1 < \bar{y} < 2.3) = 0.159 \) (rounded to three decimal places). c) \( P(\bar{y} > 2.1) = 0.1 \) (rounded to one decimal place).

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