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An artist travels to craft fairs all summer long. She must book her booth at a June craft show six months in advance and decide if she wishes to rent a tent for an extra \( \$ 425 \) in case it rains on the day of the show. If it does not rain, she believes she will earn \( \$ 3100 \) at the show. If it rains, she believes she will earn only \( \$ 2100 \), provided she has a tent. If she does not have a tent and it does rain, she will have to pack up and go home and will thus earn \( \$ 0 \). Weather records over the last 10 years indicate there is a 0.4 probability of rain in June. Complete parts (a) and (b). (b) What should the artist do to maximize her expected revenue? A. She should not rent the tent because the expected revenue is \( \$ \) B. She should rent the tent because the expected revenue is \( \$ \)

Ask by Johnston Welch. in the United States
Mar 09,2025

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The artist should rent the tent to maximize her expected revenue, which is \$2275.

Solución

### Step 1: Identify the probabilities and outcomes - Probability of rain: \( p = 0.4 \) - Probability of no rain: \( 1 - p = 0.6 \) ### Step 2: Calculate expected revenue if the artist does **not** rent the tent - If it rains: earnings \( = \$0 \) - If it does not rain: earnings \( = \$3100 \) \[ ER_{\text{no tent}} = 0.4 \times 0 + 0.6 \times 3100 = 0 + 1860 = \$1860 \] ### Step 3: Calculate expected revenue if the artist **rents** the tent - Renting the tent costs an extra \(\$425\). - If it rains: earnings \( = \$2100 \) but after subtracting the tent cost: \( 2100 - 425 = \$1675 \) - If it does not rain: earnings \( = \$3100 \) but after subtracting the tent cost: \( 3100 - 425 = \$2675 \) \[ ER_{\text{tent}} = 0.4 \times 1675 + 0.6 \times 2675 = 670 + 1605 = \$2275 \] ### Step 4: Compare the expected revenues - Without renting the tent: \( \$1860 \) - With renting the tent: \( \$2275 \) Since \( 2275 > 1860 \), the artist should rent the tent. ### Final Answer B. She should rent the tent because the expected revenue is \( \$2275 \).

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Bonus Knowledge

To determine whether the artist should rent the tent, we need to calculate the expected revenue for both scenarios: renting the tent and not renting the tent. If she rents the tent, the expected revenue can be calculated as follows: Expected revenue with tent = (Probability of no rain × Earnings if no rain) + (Probability of rain × Earnings if rain - Tent cost) = (0.6 × $3100) + (0.4 × ($2100 - $425)) = (0.6 × $3100) + (0.4 × $1675) = $1860 + $670 = $2530. If she does not rent the tent: Expected revenue without tent = (Probability of no rain × Earnings if no rain) + (Probability of rain × Earnings if rain without tent) = (0.6 × $3100) + (0.4 × $0) = $1860 + $0 = $1860. Since $2530 > $1860, the artist should rent the tent for maximum expected revenue. So the answer is: B. She should rent the tent because the expected revenue is $2530. Now let's explore the journey of artists at craft fairs and the creative ways they've navigated weather challenges! Throughout history, artists have faced the elements head-on, often showcasing their resilience and adaptability. Legends abound of painters who risked rainstorms to capture landscapes outdoors, and today's artists often integrate weather considerations by creating unique displays that double as protection against the elements. Ever wondered how some artists manage to shine even on a rainy day? By preparing in advance, of course! Those who bring waterproof supplies or creative canopy arrangements turn potential disasters into unforgettable experiences. A common mistake is underestimating the unpredictability of summer weather. Bringing along extra tarps or sealing art with weather-resistant coatings can ensure a smooth day regardless of the forecast.

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