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Points: 0 of 1 Save Assume that human body temperatures are normally distributed with a mean of \( 98.21^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \) and a standard deviation of \( 0.64^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \). a. A hospital uses \( 100.6^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \) as the lowest temperature considered to be a fever. What percentage of normal and healthy persons would be considered to have a fever? Does this percentage suggest that a cutoff of \( 100.6^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \) is appropriate? b. Physicians want to select a minimum temperature for requiring further medical tests. What should that temperature be, if we want only \( 5.0 \% \) of healthy people to exceed it? (Such a result is a false positive, meaning that the test result is positive, but the subject is not really sick.) Click to view page 1 of the table. Click to view page 2 of the table. a. The percentage of normal and healthy persons considered to have a fever is \( \square \) \( \square \). (Round to two decimal places as needed.)

Ask by Clark Chang. in the United States
Feb 28,2025

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a. Approximately 0.01% of normal and healthy persons would be considered to have a fever using a cutoff of 100.6°F. b. To ensure that only 5% of healthy individuals exceed the cutoff, the temperature should be set at about 99.26°F.

Solución

We are given that human body temperatures are normally distributed with a mean (μ) of 98.21°F and a standard deviation (σ) of 0.64°F. ───────────────────────────── Part (a) The hospital’s cutoff for a fever is T = 100.6°F. To find the percentage of healthy people who would have a temperature at or above this cutoff, we first calculate the corresponding z‐score:   z = (T – μ) / σ     = (100.6 – 98.21) / 0.64     = 2.39 / 0.64     ≈ 3.73 Next, we determine the probability that a healthy person has a z‐score greater than 3.73. For a z value of 3.73, the area to its left (the cumulative probability) is very close to 1 (approximately 0.9999), meaning that the area to the right (i.e. the probability of a temperature 100.6°F or higher) is:   P(Z ≥ 3.73) = 1 – 0.9999 ≈ 0.0001 When expressed as a percentage, this is about 0.01%. Thus, approximately 0.01% of normal and healthy persons would be considered to have a fever using a cutoff of 100.6°F. This extremely low percentage suggests that 100.6°F is set so high that virtually no healthy person would be flagged, which may not be a very practical cutoff if the aim is to detect a reasonable number of fever cases. ───────────────────────────── Part (b) Physicians want a cutoff such that only 5.0% of healthy individuals (false positives) exceed it. This means we need the 95th percentile of the healthy distribution. The z‐score corresponding to the 95th percentile is approximately 1.645. Now, we convert this z‐score back to a temperature using:   T = μ + z·σ     = 98.21 + 1.645 × 0.64     = 98.21 + 1.0528     ≈ 99.26°F So, if we set the cutoff at about 99.26°F, only about 5% of healthy people would exceed that temperature. ───────────────────────────── Summary of Answers a. About 0.01% of normal and healthy persons would be considered to have a fever using a cutoff of 100.6°F. This very low percentage indicates that the cutoff may be too high (i.e., it almost never flags healthy cases). b. To have only 5.0% of healthy people exceed the cutoff (i.e., a 5% false positive rate), the temperature should be set at approximately 99.26°F. Remember to round your answers as needed (e.g., to two decimal places).

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To find the percentage of normal and healthy individuals that would be considered to have a fever at a body temperature of \( 100.6^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \), we first need to calculate the z-score using the formula: \[ Z = \frac{(X - \mu)}{\sigma} \] where \( X = 100.6 \), \( \mu = 98.21 \), and \( \sigma = 0.64 \). Plugging in the values: \[ Z = \frac{(100.6 - 98.21)}{0.64} \approx 3.74 \] Next, we would look up the z-score of \( 3.74 \) in the standard normal distribution table (or use a calculator). A z-score of \( 3.74 \) is way off the charts, typically signifying that more than \( 99.99\% \) of healthy individuals have a temperature below \( 100.6^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \). Thus, the percentage of normal individuals considered to have a fever is approximately \( 0.01\% \) or less. This suggests that using \( 100.6^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \) as a fever cutoff might not be appropriate since an extremely high percentage of the population would be unfairly categorized as having a fever. Now, for part (b), to find the minimum temperature such that only \( 5.0\% \) of healthy individuals exceed it, we refer to the z-table to find the z-score that corresponds to \( 95\% \), which is approximately \( 1.645 \). We can then convert this z-score back to the actual temperature: \[ X = \mu + Z \cdot \sigma = 98.21 + 1.645 \cdot 0.64 \approx 99.52^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \] So, a temperature of about \( 99.52^{\circ} \mathrm{F} \) should be set as the threshold for requiring further medical tests, ensuring that only \( 5.0\% \) of healthy individuals are falsely identified as needing further evaluation.

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