Pregunta
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In a procuct labillyy ease, a company can settle out of court for a loss of \( \$ 850,000 \), or go to trial, loang \( \$ 1,200,000 \) ir found gully and nothind II found not gully, Lawers for the company estimate the probabilly of a noigully vertict to be 0.8 , Complete pats (a) through (b) below. a. What is the expected value of the ancunt the company can lose by taking the case to coutr \( \$ \) \( \square \)

Ask by Cole Wheeler. in the United States
Mar 20,2025

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The expected loss by taking the case to court is \$240,000.

Solución

**Step 1. Define the outcomes and probabilities** The company has two outcomes if it goes to trial: - It loses \( \$1,200,000 \) if found guilty. - It loses \( \$0 \) if found not guilty. The probability of a not guilty verdict is given as \( 0.8 \). Therefore, the probability of a guilty verdict is \[ 1 - 0.8 = 0.2. \] **Step 2. Calculate the expected loss** The expected loss \( E \) when going to trial is calculated as: \[ E = (0.2)(1,200,000) + (0.8)(0). \] **Step 3. Perform the calculation** \[ E = 0.2 \times 1,200,000 = 240,000. \] Thus, the expected value of the amount the company can lose by taking the case to court is: \[ \$240,000. \]

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The Deep Dive

To calculate the expected value of the amount the company can lose by taking the case to court, we can use the formula for expected value, which considers both possible outcomes: a guilty verdict and a not guilty verdict. 1. **Guilty Verdict**: The company loses $1,200,000 with a probability of \( 0.2 \) (since the probability of a not guilty verdict is \( 0.8 \)). 2. **Not Guilty Verdict**: The company loses $0 with a probability of \( 0.8 \). So, the expected value (EV) can be calculated as follows: \[ EV = (Loss \, if \, guilty) \times (Probability \, of \, guilty) + (Loss \, if \, not \, guilty) \times (Probability \, of \, not \, guilty) \] \[ EV = (1,200,000 \times 0.2) + (0 \times 0.8) \] \[ EV = 240,000 + 0 = 240,000 \] Thus, the expected value of the amount the company can lose by going to court is \( \$240,000 \). Now, let's wrap it all up: The expected value of the amount the company can lose by taking the case to court is \( \$240,000 \).

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